Mortgage rates just hit 6.95%. The 30-year fixed crossed 7% last Thursday for the first time since 2025. The Fed sits down today and tomorrow to decide what happens next.

At the start of 2026, rates were at 5.99%. Fannie Mae was projecting 5.7% by December. Buyers were told the window was opening.

Rates went the wrong direction.

The Numbers, Laid Out

Here's where things actually stand. The 30-year fixed crossed 7% on Thursday, September 10, hitting 7.07% according to Optimal Blue data reported by CNBC. That was the first time rates topped 7% in over a year. As of Tuesday morning, the daily rate sits at 6.95%. Freddie Mac's weekly average, which lags the daily moves, shows 6.76% and climbing, per the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Lenders priced the latest inflation report higher, not lower. Every projection that told buyers to wait has now been wrong for nine straight months.

The Fed Meets This Week. Here's What Can Happen.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets September 15 and 16, with the decision landing Wednesday afternoon. Markets expect the Fed to hold, and Reuters reports a rising number of analysts now see at least one hike before this cycle ends.

Two scenarios. If the Fed holds and stays stubborn on inflation, mortgage rates stay elevated. If they signal a cut is coming, there'll be a brief window before every buyer who's been waiting floods back into the market at the same time.

Neither scenario rewards sitting still. I explained the mechanics of this squeeze when inflation killed the rate cut story earlier this year. Nothing about this week changes that math.

What Waiting Has Already Cost Your Buyer

Every month of waiting has cost them in one of two ways. Either prices moved up or rates moved up. Usually both.

The buyer who wanted a $400,000 home in January faced a 5.99% rate. Today they face 6.95% on a home that's appreciated for another nine months. Their monthly payment went up twice while they waited for a forecast that never arrived. That's the exact trap I laid out in the 5% rate delusion. The number buyers are waiting for keeps not existing.

And when rates finally do drop, the waiting buyers all move at once. The inventory they're watching today gets absorbed in weeks. Bidding wars come back. The negotiating leverage they've got right now disappears overnight. Buyers who waited for a better rate end up paying more for the home and competing against ten other offers. That's the trade nobody prices in.

The Script: The Conversation to Have Today

The most valuable conversation you can have with a buyer right now isn't about what the Fed will do. It's about what waiting has already cost them and what their options look like today.

Here's the script. "The Fed decision drops tomorrow. I'm not going to pretend anyone knows what they'll say. What I can show you is what the last nine months of waiting already cost you, and what your numbers look like at today's rate with today's inventory. If the math works, we move. If it doesn't, at least you made the decision with real numbers instead of a forecast that's been wrong all year."

That conversation wins clients because it's honest. It doesn't promise rate cuts. It doesn't pretend anyone has a crystal ball. It puts the buyer's actual cost of waiting on the table and lets them decide like an adult.

The Bottom Line

Rates at 6.95% aren't a reason to panic. They're a reason to do the math. The buyers who win this market aren't the ones who time rates perfectly. They're the ones who buy when the market gives them leverage, and right now it still does. Inventory exists, sellers negotiate, and most of the competition is on the sidelines waiting for a number that keeps moving away from them.

Texas buyers can start that conversation at realgoodmoves.com. Agents who want the full system for turning rate objections into closings, that's exactly what we build at Power Unit Coaching.